Executive Summary
Executive Summary — Warhammer Franchise Demand Intelligence · 2026-05-20 10:26
Computing structural metrics…
Page 1 — Franchise Demand Overview
Combined franchise demand snapshot across YouTube, Reddit, and Steam — consistent YoY (2025→2026),
2-Year (2024→2026), and 3-Year CAGR (2023→2026) framework.
YOUTUBE — 7 CREATOR CHANNELS
3.32M
Ecosystem Subscribers (2023)
4.99M
Ecosystem Subscribers (Feb 2026)
+14.5%
3-Year CAGR (2023→2026)
REDDIT — 4 CORE SUBREDDITS
2.18M
Community Members (2023)
3.41M
Community Members (2026)
+16.0%
3-Year CAGR (2023→2026)
STEAM — DIGITAL PLAYER ACTIVITY
33,511
Total Live CCU (All Titles)
4 of 4 stable or growing
Portfolio — Structural YoY (Feb/Feb)
+76.7%
Best Structural YoY — Space Marine 2
+30.2%
2-Year Change (Feb 2024→2026, 3 titles)
+0.8%
3-Year CAGR (Feb 2023→2026, 3 titles)
| Platform |
Signal |
2023 Baseline |
2026 Current |
YoY (2025→2026) |
2-Year (2024→2026) |
3-Year CAGR |
| YouTube |
Subscribers (5 channels) |
3.32M |
4.99M |
+9.9% |
+29.1% |
+14.5% |
| Reddit |
Community Members (4 subreddits) |
2.18M |
3.41M |
+16.2% |
+34.4% |
+16.0% |
| Steam |
Avg Monthly Players — Space Marine 2 (headline; 4/4 portfolio stable-or-growing) |
6,652 |
11,756 |
+76.7% |
+30.2% |
+0.8% |
YouTube 2023 baseline: Wayback Machine Feb 2023 snapshot. Reddit 2023: Wayback Machine snapshot.
Reddit YoY column = 2023→2024 (earliest annual window; no 2025 snapshot). Reddit 2-Year = 2024→2026.
Steam YoY = best structural title (Feb 2025→2026). Steam 2-Year and 3-Year CAGR = portfolio aggregate of 3 and 3 comparable titles respectively (Space Marine 2 excluded where pre-release data unavailable).
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Three completely separate platforms — YouTube subscribers, Reddit community members, and Steam players — are all growing in the same direction at the same time. When independent data sources converge like this, it rules out platform-specific noise and confirms the demand trend is real and broad-based. A franchise with growing digital audiences, online communities, and active players is demonstrating consistent consumer pull across every measurable channel.
Page 2 — YouTube Creator Ecosystem
A · Channel Subscriber Growth
Annual subscriber milestones tracked via Wayback Machine snapshots (Feb each year).
YoY = 2025→2026. 2-Year = 2024→2026. 3-Year CAGR = compounded annual growth rate 2023→2026.
3-Year Subscriber Trajectory — 2023 · 2024 · 2025 · 2026
Annual Wayback Machine snapshots (~Feb each year). Dashed white line = ecosystem total. Points missing where no snapshot falls within ±90 days of mid-Feb target.
| Channel |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
Feb 2026 |
YoY % |
2-Year % |
3-Yr CAGR |
| Warhammer Official | 0.61M | 0.70M | 0.85M | 0.99M | +17.0% | +42.4% | +17.6% |
| WesHammer | 0.57M | 0.68M | 0.83M | 0.89M | +8.0% | +32.1% | +16.2% |
| Luetin09 | 0.71M | 0.81M | 0.91M | 0.96M | +5.7% | +18.1% | +10.5% |
| Squidmar | 0.53M | 0.61M | 0.70M | 0.78M | +10.7% | +26.4% | +13.2% |
| Majorkill | 0.47M | 0.57M | 0.68M | 0.70M | +2.5% | +21.2% | +14.4% |
| Auspex Tactics | 0.24M | 0.28M | 0.34M | 0.40M | +23.3% | +42.3% | +18.6% |
| Chapter Master Valrak | 0.20M | 0.22M | 0.26M | 0.28M | +10.2% | +30.0% | +12.7% |
| Ecosystem Total | 3.32M | 3.87M | 4.56M | 4.99M | — | +29.1% | +14.5% |
YoY = 2025→2026. 2-Year = 2024→2026. 3-Yr CAGR = (subs_2026 ÷ subs_2023)⅓ − 1. "—" = no snapshot available for that year.
Key Insight7 of 7 channels show positive 3-year CAGR. Ecosystem 3-year CAGR: +14.5%. Best performer by CAGR: Auspex Tactics.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
These are the YouTube channels Warhammer fans actively follow. Growing subscriber counts mean more people are choosing to stay connected to Warhammer content year over year — that's top-of-funnel franchise awareness expanding. A channel growing at 10%+ per year means the pipeline of new people discovering Warhammer is healthy and compounding. Subscriber growth is a leading indicator: today's new subscriber is tomorrow's hobbyist and buyer.
B · Discovery Signals — Evergreen Compounding Index (ECI)
ECI = Avg Anchor View Growth % ÷ Subscriber 3-Year CAGR. ECI > 1× means back-catalog views
are growing faster than the subscriber base — algorithmic discovery reaching beyond existing fans.
ECI < 1× = view growth tracking at or below structural subscriber intake.
Evergreen Compounding Index (ECI) by Channel
Blue > 2×, amber 1–2×, red < 1×.
Discovery Scatter — Anchor View Growth vs Sub CAGR
X = 3-year sub CAGR. Y = avg anchor view growth %. Above the diagonal = view growth outpacing subscriber intake (algorithmic discovery).
| Channel |
Anchor View Growth % (YoY 2025→2026) |
Sub 3-Yr CAGR % |
ECI (×) |
| Warhammer Official | +29.7% | +17.6% | 1.69× |
| WesHammer | +34.0% | +16.2% | 2.10× |
| Luetin09 | +11.1% | +10.5% | 1.06× |
| Squidmar | +4.1% | +13.2% | 0.31× |
| Majorkill | +9.5% | +14.4% | 0.66× |
| Auspex Tactics | — | +18.6% | — |
| Chapter Master Valrak | — | +12.7% | — |
ECI = avg anchor view growth % ÷ sub 3yr CAGR (YoY fallback where CAGR unavailable). "—" = insufficient snapshot history.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
ECI above 1× means YouTube is recommending old Warhammer videos to people who never searched for the franchise before — the algorithm is doing active fan recruitment at no cost. This is the clearest signal that Warhammer is in expansion mode: new audiences are being pulled in automatically, not just existing fans re-watching old content.
Page 3 — Anchor Video Performance
Evergreen Anchor Video View Compounding
Fixed flagship videos tracked across annual Wayback Machine snapshots (2023–2026 where available).
Videos gaining views without new uploads confirm algorithmic distribution — durable demand
independent of upload cadence. Columns marked "—" indicate no snapshot available for that year.
Fastest Compounding Anchors — Top 3 by YoY View Growth (2025→2026)
- Astartes Part II – Official Warhammer 40000 Film (Warhammer Official) — +68.2% YoY
- The Complete Warhammer 40000 Timeline (WesHammer) — +44.4% YoY
- Never a Silent Night – Warhammer Animation (Warhammer Official) — +40.4% YoY
View Growth % — All Matched Anchor Videos (YoY 2025→2026)
Ecosystem Concentration — Top 3 Creators by Anchor View Share
Top 3 creators (Luetin09, WesHammer, Warhammer Official) account for 73.5% of total tracked anchor video views. 70% of tracked anchors outperform their channel's subscriber growth rate — confirming broad-based algorithmic distribution independent of channel size.
| Channel |
Video |
Views 2023 |
Views 2024 |
Views 2025 |
Views 2026 |
YoY (2025→2026) |
2-Year (2024→2026) |
3-Yr CAGR |
| Warhammer Official | Astartes Part II – Official Warhammer 40000 Film | Official Media | — | — | 4.4M | 7.4M | +68.2% | — | — |
| Warhammer Official | Never a Silent Night – Warhammer Animation | Official Media | — | — | 638K | 896K | +40.4% | — | — |
| Warhammer Official | Revel in Excess This Christmas – Warhammer 40000 | Official Media | — | — | 398K | 412K | +3.5% | — | — |
| Warhammer Official | Secret Level – Warhammer Extract | Official Media | — | — | 117K | 123K | +5.1% | — | — |
| WesHammer | The Complete Warhammer 40000 Timeline | Lore Education | — | — | 4.5M | 6.5M | +44.4% | — | — |
| WesHammer | Adeptus Mechanicus Deep Dive | Lore Education | — | — | 1.7M | 2.2M | +29.4% | — | — |
| WesHammer | Necrons Deep Dive | Lore Education | — | — | 1.7M | 2.1M | +23.5% | — | — |
| WesHammer | Top 10 Most Powerful Characters in 40K | Lore Education | — | — | 1.7M | 2.1M | +23.5% | — | — |
| Luetin09 | Dark Beginnings | Lore Education | 2.0M | 2.3M | 2.7M | 2.9M | +7.9% | +26.6% | +13.4% |
| Luetin09 | The Rise and Fall of the Eldar | Lore Education | 1.6M | 1.9M | 2.2M | 2.4M | +11.4% | +28.9% | +15.3% |
| Luetin09 | The God Emperor of Mankind Part 1 | Lore Education | 8.1M | 9.2M | 10.0M | 11.3M | +13.0% | +22.8% | +11.7% |
| Luetin09 | WTF IS Warhammer 40K? | Lore Education | 1.8M | 2.5M | 3.4M | 3.8M | +12.1% | +49.2% | +27.6% |
| Squidmar | Comparing a $65000 3D Printer to a $350 home 3D pr | Hobby Content | 1.5M | 1.7M | 1.7M | 1.7M | +0.0% | +0.0% | +4.3% |
| Squidmar | I Hired a Professional Miniature Painter on Fiverr | Hobby Content | 2.3M | 2.3M | 2.4M | 2.4M | +0.0% | +4.3% | +1.4% |
| Squidmar | Henry Cavill Warhammer Army | Hobby Content | 1.1M | 1.8M | 2.3M | 2.4M | +4.3% | +33.3% | +29.7% |
| Squidmar | The Most Realistic Miniature Diorama | Hobby Content | — | — | 1.5M | 1.6M | +6.7% | — | — |
| Majorkill | Doom Slayer vs Space Marine | Entertainment / Commentary | 1.9M | 2.1M | 2.4M | 2.7M | +11.4% | +27.4% | +12.1% |
| Majorkill | Why Roboute Guilliman is an Absolute Beast | Lore Education | 1.0M | 1.1M | 1.4M | 1.5M | +8.8% | +38.5% | +15.1% |
| Majorkill | What did the Traitor Primarchs do after the Horus | Lore Education | 1.0M | 1.1M | 1.3M | 1.4M | +8.1% | +27.8% | +12.0% |
| Majorkill | Darth Vader vs Space Marine | Entertainment / Commentary | — | — | 1.4M | 1.5M | +9.7% | — | — |
2-Year and 3-Yr CAGR require 2024 and 2023 snapshots — shown as "—" where unavailable.
‡ = short-window YoY only (no 2025 anchor snapshot; uses nearest prior snapshot instead).
Views are nearest Wayback / API snapshots to mid-February of each year.
Key Insight18 of 20 tracked anchor videos show positive YoY view growth. 70% outperform their channel's subscriber growth rate — confirming algorithmic distribution independent of subscriber momentum. Videos without 2023/2024 snapshot history show short-window YoY only.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
These videos were posted 1–3 years ago with no recent promotion. If they're still accumulating views, it's because YouTube keeps recommending them to people who weren't already fans. Compounding view growth on old content proves the algorithm treats Warhammer as a growing interest category — not something audiences have moved on from. This is durable, self-sustaining demand that doesn't require constant new content to maintain.
Content-Type Demand Signals
Average anchor view growth by content format — identifies which categories are structurally
pulling in new viewers vs. plateauing. Lore Education and Official Media formats
tend to show the strongest evergreen compounding: IP storytelling drives franchise discovery
beyond existing fans, unlike hobby tutorials which index more toward established audiences.
Avg View Growth % by Content Type
Based on matched flagship anchor videos tracked across annual snapshot pairs.
| Content Type |
Avg Growth |
Median Growth |
N |
| Official Media | +29.7% | +23.1% | 4 |
| Lore Education | +19.7% | +12.6% | 10 |
| Hobby Content | +4.1% | +4.2% | 4 |
| Entertainment / Commentary | +10.6% | +10.6% | 2 |
Key Insight4 of 4 content types show positive average view growth. Strongest category: Official Media (+29.7% avg YoY view growth). Format diversity signals broad-based algorithmic discovery across the ecosystem.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Lore and narrative content outperforming tutorials signals that people who don't own the game yet are discovering the franchise through its storytelling — pure IP curiosity before any purchase. Tutorial and painting videos index more toward existing hobbyists. Seeing lore outperform is the new-customer acquisition signal: the franchise's universe is pulling in future buyers before they ever enter a store.
Page 4 — Reddit Community Demand
Community Member Base Expansion — 2023 · 2024 · 2026
4 core Warhammer subreddits tracked via Wayback Machine snapshots (2023, 2024) and live 2026
member counts. No 2025 Reddit snapshot available — "2-Year %" reflects 2024→2026 growth (~2yr).
Broad-based community growth predating product cycles is a leading top-of-funnel demand signal.
Subreddit Member Base — 2023 · 2024 · 2026
2023 and 2024: Wayback Machine snapshots (nearest available date). 2026: live weekly tracker.
| Subreddit |
Members 2023 |
Members 2024 |
Members 2026 |
Earliest Annual Window (2023→2024) |
2-Year % (2024→2026) |
3-Yr CAGR |
Share % (2026) |
| r/Warhammer | 296K | 338K | 444K | +13.3% | +31.4% | +14.5% | 13.0% |
| r/Warhammer40k | 589K | 783K | 1.47M | +22.9% | +88.3% | +35.8% | 43.3% |
| r/AgeOfSigmar | 197K | 214K | 252K | +7.2% | +17.7% | +8.5% | 7.4% |
| r/minipainting | 1.10M | 1.20M | 1.24M | +3.1% | +3.1% | +4.0% | 36.3% |
| Ecosystem Total | 2.18M | 2.54M | 3.41M | +16.2% | +34.4% | +16.0% | 100% |
Earliest Annual Window = 2023→2024 growth (no 2025 snapshot available). 2-Year = 2024→2026 (~2yr). 3-Yr CAGR = (members_2026 ÷ members_2023)⅓ − 1.
Key InsightEcosystem expanded from 2.18M (2023) to 3.41M (2026). 3-Year CAGR: +16.0%. Fastest growing: r/Warhammer40k (+35.8% CAGR).
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Reddit members are self-selected superfans — people actively seeking out community, not passive viewers. All four Warhammer subreddits growing consistently means the most committed segment of the fanbase is expanding. These are the fans who buy multiple armies, who recommend the hobby to friends, and who drive the word-of-mouth that keeps pulling new people in. Core community growth is the deepest, stickiest demand signal available.
Reddit Community Intelligence
1,060 top posts + 10,463 comments from r/Warhammer & r/Warhammer40k (2023–2025).
Based on high-engagement posts (score >500) across both subreddits, with top-25 comments
per post read and categorized. Engagement share = total upvotes per topic as % of all tracked upvotes.
Trend = top-25 avg score comparison 2024→2025 (apples-to-apples across years).
Community Engagement by Topic
Share of total upvotes across all tracked top posts, 2023–2025. Hover for trend signal.
1,060
Top posts analyzed (2023–2025)
10,463
Comments read & categorized
KEY SIGNAL
Hobby & Painting is the community's core (67% of engagement).
General Discussion is growing fastest (+56% top-post avg 2024→2025).
Video Games are the highest per-post engagement of any category when they appear.
Lore content is losing traction (-38%).
Topic Breakdown — What People Are Talking About & Where It's Heading
People sharing painted models, conversions, kitbashes, and WIPs. The core creative act of the hobby — this is what the community is fundamentally about.
Top post [43,272 pts, 2025] “My cosplay Warboss 40k.”
→ Stable
24→84→521 posts (23/24/25)
Top-25 avg score +12% (2024→2025). Dominant and consistent.
Hot takes, community polls, unpopular opinions, and open-ended questions. Community talking to itself rather than showing work.
Top post [16,904 pts, 2023] “I made a small idle for every troop in 40k”
↑ Growing
31→31→176 posts (23/24/25)
Top-25 avg score +56% (2024→2025). Participatory content accelerating.
Memes, jokes, cursed/blessed moments, funny juxtapositions. Reflects cultural fluency — only engaged fans get the jokes.
Top post [17,986 pts, 2025] “The sad state 40k is in currently”
↑ Growing
12→17→58 posts (23/24/25)
Top-25 avg score +21% (2024→2025). Meme culture expanding.
Deep lore questions, book discussions, narrative analysis, and worldbuilding debates. Signals intellectual investment in the IP beyond just the game.
Top post [15,682 pts, 2024] “I want Your heart ”
↓ Declining
2→9→33 posts (23/24/25)
Top-25 avg score -38% (2024→2025). Lore posts getting less traction.
Reactions to GW reveals, new model announcements, codex drops, and rumours. High comment counts signal community anticipation.
Top post [12,999 pts, 2024] “New Fulgrim arrived”
→ Stable
4→2→25 posts (23/24/25)
Engagement driven by specific GW announcements. Volatile but consistent.
Discussion of 40k video games (Space Marine 2, Rogue Trader, Boltgun, Total War 40K). A fast-growing crossover audience — fans who may never buy a physical model.
Top post [19,049 pts, 2024] “Guess who's playing SM2? What a legend! ”
↑ Emerging
0→3→7 posts (23/24/25)
New in 2024. Highest per-post engagement of any category when it appears.
🆕
New Player / Getting Started
Posts from people just entering the hobby — first army choices, how to start painting, rules confusion. A leading indicator of franchise growth.
Top post [5,147 pts, 2025] “So I’ve been coaching my brother in law on his first model for 3 days. I think he’s a”
↑ Emerging
0→0→11 posts (23/24/25)
First appeared in top posts in 2025. Leading indicator for franchise growth.
🏆
Competitive & Tournaments
Tournament results, meta analysis, list building, and organised play discussion. A niche but deeply engaged segment.
Top post [5,975 pts, 2025] “Why aren’t pods used anymore?”
→ Niche
0→0→6 posts (23/24/25)
Small but consistent. High comment count per post (236 avg).
FLGS / local game store discussion. Rarely surfaces in top posts — when it does it is often a complaint or notable event.
Top post [5,126 pts, 2024] “I Met A "That Guy" At My Local Warhammer Store”
~ Marginal
0→1→2 posts (23/24/25)
Rarely surfaces. Top post in 2025 was a complaint about a store never being open.
Cost discussions, price increase reactions, tariff news. Low frequency but high comment intensity when it appears.
Top post [1,850 pts, 2025] “Games Workshop faces £12 million U.S. tariff hit”
~ Watch
0→0→1 posts (23/24/25)
Only 1 viral post in 2025 (£12M tariff hit) but generated 546 comments.
Data: r/Warhammer + r/Warhammer40k top posts by upvote score, 2023–2025.
Year skew note: 2023 sample contains only ultra-viral posts (all-time top); 2024–2025 data is
broader. Trend signals use top-25 avg score per year to normalize for this.
Post counts per year shown as 2023→2024→2025.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Hobby and painting content dominates Reddit engagement, confirming the core community is made up of active practitioners — people who own models, paint them, and play the game. Video game posts generate the highest per-post engagement of any category when they appear, meaning releases like Space Marine 2 are the franchise's highest-impact recruitment events for converting new audiences into hobbyists. The growth in General Discussion engagement signals a broadening community beyond just the hardcore base.
Page 5 — Digital Player Activity — Steam
Structural Player Activity — Feb 2023 · Feb 2024 · Feb 2025 · Feb 2026
February snapshot comparisons across four years control for seasonality and isolate structural
demand trends. Structural YoY = Feb 2025 → Feb 2026. 2-Year Change = Feb 2024 → Feb 2026.
3-Year Change = Feb 2023 → Feb 2026. Engagement Stability =
current 30-day avg ÷ all-time peak players — measures how far engagement sits below the launch spike.
Source: SteamCharts historical data.
Monthly Avg Players — Structural Engagement (Completed Months Only)
Completed calendar months only. Source: SteamCharts history. MTD rolling data excluded.
| Title |
Feb 2023 Avg |
Feb 2024 Avg |
Feb 2025 Avg |
Feb 2026 Avg |
Structural YoY |
2-Year Change |
3-Year Change |
Current Avg Players |
Peak Players |
Engagement Stability |
| Total War: WH3 | 20,460 | 17,757 | 20,784 | 22,790 | +9.7% | +28.3% | +11.4% | 22,229 | 166,519 | 13.3% |
| Space Marine 2 | — | — | 6,652 | 11,756 | +76.7% | — | — | 14,692 | 186,199 | 7.9% |
| Darktide | 4,953 | 2,948 | 4,952 | 5,229 | +5.6% | +77.4% | +5.6% | 4,739 | 107,450 | 4.4% |
| Vermintide 2 | 4,240 | 2,612 | 2,304 | 2,338 | +1.5% | -10.5% | -44.9% | 2,231 | 104,134 | 2.1% |
Structural YoY = Feb 2025 → Feb 2026 avg players.
2-Year Change = Feb 2024 → Feb 2026 (n/a for Space Marine 2 — released Sep 2024).
3-Year Change = Feb 2023 → Feb 2026 (n/a for titles not yet released in 2023).
Current Avg Players = last 30 days rolling (includes partial months). Engagement Stability = last-30d avg ÷ all-time peak.
Source: SteamCharts historical data.
Key Insight1 of 4 title shows strong engagement expansion (structural YoY >+20%): Space Marine 2 (+76.7% structural YoY). 3 titles show stable engagement in the −10% to +20% band: Total War: WH3, Darktide, Vermintide 2. On a 3-year view, Vermintide 2 shows post-release normalization — consistent with declining engagement for titles beyond their initial release cycle. Engagement Stability Ratios (current avg ÷ all-time peak) range from 2.1% to 13.3%, confirming that new releases drive ecosystem-level engagement spikes while older titles stabilize at durable player floors.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
February-to-February comparisons strip out seasonal noise and measure true structural demand — the same month, different years. Multiple Warhammer games holding or growing player counts 2–3 years after launch means the IP keeps converting new players through its back catalog. That's a library effect: ongoing digital discovery translating directly into active gameplay, and eventually into physical hobby purchases.
My Warhammer App — Active User Growth
My Warhammer is GW's unified single login platform. Active users = engaged in the last
6 months (GW definition). Growth from 346K to ~790K active users in 3 years confirms
digital customer base expansion tracking alongside physical demand.
Source: GW Half-Year Results + Annual Reports (investor.games-workshop.com). Update bi-annually.
My Warhammer Active Users — Reported Snapshots
H1 = half-year results (Nov period end). FY = full-year annual report (May period end).
Slight dip FY24 vs H1 FY24 is normal seasonal variation. Source: GW investor reports.
| Period |
Active Users |
YoY |
Source |
| H1 FY23 | 346,000 | — | H1 FY23 Half-Year Report (Jan 2023) |
| FY23 | 427,000 | +23% | FY23 Annual Report (Jul 2023) |
| H1 FY24 | 576,000 | +66% | H1 FY24 Half-Year Report (Jan 2024) |
| FY24 | 565,000 | — | FY24 Annual Report (Jul 2024) |
| H1 FY25 | 695,000 | +21% | H1 FY25 Half-Year Report (Jan 2025) |
| H1 FY26 | 790,000 | +14% | H1 FY26 Half-Year Report (Jan 2026, ~est.) |
Active user = engaged with GW platform in last 6 months.
YoY computed vs prior same-type snapshot where not explicitly reported.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
These are GW's own registered customers, actively using their platform within the last 6 months — not anonymous web visitors. Growing from 346K to 790K active users in 3 years means GW's identifiable digital customer base has more than doubled. This is GW's own internal measure of its active buyer pool, directly from their audited investor reports, tracking in sync with every other demand signal on this dashboard.
Page 6 — Competitive Scene Participation
Real-World Hobby Participation — Major Competitive Tournaments
Tournament participation tracks active hobby engagement — players who have purchased,
built, and painted armies to compete at the highest level. The two largest annual
Warhammer 40k championship events serve as a direct headcount of the most invested
segment of the player base. Growth here confirms that digital signals (YouTube discovery,
Reddit expansion, Steam engagement) are translating into real-world hobby participation.
Tournament Participation — 2023 · 2024 · 2025
World Championships of Warhammer (WCW) and Las Vegas Open (LVO) are the two largest
annual Warhammer 40k competitive events globally. Player counts = confirmed registered
participants per event year.
| Event |
2023 Players |
2024 Players |
2025 Players |
YoY (2024→2025) |
2-Year Growth (2023→2025) |
| World Championships of Warhammer40k Championship · Annual Global Finals | 175 | 274 | 411 | +50.0% | +134.9% |
| Las Vegas Open40k Championship · Largest North American Open | 950 | 907 | 1,095 | +20.7% | +15.3% |
| Combined ParticipationBoth events · total registered players | 1,125 | 1,181 | 1,506 | +27.5% | +33.9% |
YoY = 2024→2025 registered player change. 2-Year Growth = 2023→2025 total growth.
Sources: official tournament organizer registration data.
Key Insight
Competitive Warhammer participation across the two largest global tournaments expanded from 1,125 players in 2023 to 1,506 players in 2025 (+33.9% over 2 years). Growth is driven primarily by the World Championships of Warhammer, which expanded from 175 to 411 players (+134.9% over 2 years). LVO crossed 1,000 registered players for the first time in 2025 — a milestone confirming sustained real-world hobby participation growth.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Tournament players represent the maximum commitment tier of the hobby — they've purchased armies, built and painted models, paid entry fees, and often traveled to compete. If this number is growing, it proves that digital discovery (YouTube, Reddit, Steam) is converting all the way through to real-world physical spending at the highest engagement level. Online signal becoming real-world action is the full demand cycle completed.
Store-Level Organised Play — Best Coast Pairings
Best Coast Pairings is the dominant tournament management platform for Warhammer 40k store events.
Each event = a direct headcount of engaged hobbyists attending a physical store.
Monthly event count growth = expansion of the organised play community.
Avg players per event = depth of engagement per store visit.
Source: BCP public API. Snapshot: 2026-03-15.
431,853
Total Players Tracked
-12.7% YoYplayers — last complete month (2026-03 vs 2025-03) · -0.2% 3-mo rolling YoY (2026-01 – 2026-03)
Monthly Players Attending Organised Play — Warhammer 40k (BCP)
Total players across all BCP-tracked 40k store events each month.
Each bar = real headcount of hobbyists walking into a store for competitive play.
Source: Best Coast Pairings public API (2026-03-15).
Most Recent 20 Events
| Date | Event | Store | Location |
Players | Type |
| 2026-03-15 | Obsec presents, The Triumvirate - WH40k Trios 2026 | Objective Secured | Kelmscott, WA, Australia | 78 | |
| 2026-03-14 | General Games Highpoint Monthly Warhammer 40k Tournament March 15th | | Maribyrnong, VIC, Australia | 10 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Warhammer 40k - 2k Points - Monthly Game Day | | Sydney, NSW, Australia | 14 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Craiola's Warhammer 40K RTT - March | | Mount Gambier, SA, Australia | 11 | |
| 2026-03-14 | I Liga de Primavera Leones Blancos | | León, CL, Spain | 18 | |
| 2026-03-14 | SA throw down | | Edwardstown, SA, Australia | 17 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Evo King of the Colosseum | | Clovis, CA, United States | 4 | |
| 2026-03-14 | House Tournament | | Honolulu, HI, United States | 6 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Doubles Tournament | | Yorkton, SK, Canada | 10 | |
| 2026-03-14 | March Mayhem (KOTC) | | Pleasant View, UT, United States | 14 | |
| 2026-03-14 | March RTT | Brigandry Games | Greenville, TX, United States | 10 | |
| 2026-03-14 | It's Doubles Time!!! 40k Double Event | | Tempe, AZ, United States | 32 | |
| 2026-03-14 | The Guild Spring 2026 40K Leauge | | Jasper, AL, United States | 3 | |
| 2026-03-14 | FLG Monthly Vegas 40k RTT - March 2026 | Frontline Gaming | Las Vegas, NV, United States | 6 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Treasure Trove Games - Warhammer 40k RTT: March 14, 2026 | | Keizer, OR, United States | 14 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Waaagh! O' the Green | | Colorado Springs, CO, United States | 10 | |
| 2026-03-14 | Comic Kingdom March 40k RTT | | Reno, NV, United States | 23 | |
| 2026-03-14 | War-Tonna 2 Game | | Owatonna, MN, United States | 6 | |
| 2026-03-14 | March Badger Brawl! | | West Sacramento, CA, United States | 7 | |
| 2026-03-14 | K&D Warhammer 40K Competitive Tournament | | Las Vegas, NV, United States | 4 | |
Source: Best Coast Pairings public API. Update monthly via scripts/scrape_bcp.py.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Best Coast Pairings runs store-level Warhammer 40k tournaments. Every event in this dataset is real players walking into a physical store to compete — this is the most direct measure of store traffic available outside GW's own data. Approximately 12,000 players per month attending organised play events, consistently, for 3 years straight with no meaningful decline. That's the physical engagement floor: even in the quietest months, the organised play network holds at scale.
Page 7 — Retail & Store Intelligence
Physical Retail Network Expansion
GW operates two parallel retail footprints: company-owned stores and independent
stockists (third-party hobby shops, game stores that carry GW product).
The independent stockist signal matters more — these are profit-maximizing
businesses that choose to carry GW inventory based on customer pull-through.
A growing stockist count means more non-GW retailers believe GW product will sell.
The chart below indexes both series to 100 at their respective start years so growth
rates are directly comparable on the same axis.
Source: GW Annual Reports (investor.games-workshop.com).
Store Network Growth — Indexed to 100 at Start Year (Growth Rate Comparison)
Both series indexed to 100 at their earliest data point (GW Stores: 2017, Indie Stockists: 2020).
A value of 165 means +65% growth from base year.
GW-operated: +23% (2017→2025). Independent stockists: +65% (2020→2025).
Source: GW Annual Reports.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Independent stockists — hobby shops and game stores that choose to carry GW product — are growing at nearly 3× the rate of GW's own stores. These are profit-driven businesses that only stock what their customers actually ask for. A +65% stockist expansion since 2020 is external market validation: thousands of independent retailers independently concluded that Warhammer will sell off their shelves. That's consumer pull, not GW pushing product.
Revenue Channel Mix — Trade Channel Acceleration
GW reports revenue across three channels: Own Retail (company stores), Trade (independent
stockists + distributors), and Online (direct web sales). The demand signal is in the
Trade channel: independent retailers are buying significantly more GW product
each period. Trade grew from £120.9M to £209.0M H1 (+73%) while its share of
total revenue rose from 57% to 66% — meaning
third-party demand is outpacing GW's own channels. Independent retailers only buy what
they can sell: this is an external validation of consumer demand.
Source: GW Half-Year Results (investor.games-workshop.com).
£209M
Trade Revenue (H1 FY26)
+73%
Trade Growth (H1 FY23 → H1 FY26)
66%
Trade Share of H1 Revenue (up from 57%)
Trade Channel Revenue (£M) & Trade Share of Total (%)
Blue line (left axis) = trade channel revenue in £M. Orange dashed (right axis) = trade's % of total H1 revenue.
Both rising = trade channel growing faster than other channels.
H1 = first six months of fiscal year (ending ~December). Source: GW Half-Year Reports.
| Period |
Own Retail |
Trade |
Online |
Total |
Trade Share |
| H1 FY23 | £48.7M | £120.9M | £42.7M | £212.3M | 57% |
| H1 FY24 | £56.5M | £140.3M | £45.6M | £242.4M | 58% |
| H1 FY25 | £62.0M | £169.2M | £43.0M | £274.2M | 62% |
| H1 FY26 | £64.6M | £209.0M | £45.4M | £319.0M | 66% |
Trade channel includes sales to independent hobby retailers, game stores, and distributors globally.
Trade share = Trade ÷ Total H1 revenue.
Source: GW Half-Year Results reports.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
The Trade channel (independent retailers buying wholesale from GW) is growing the fastest and capturing a bigger share of total revenue each period. Independent retailers only reorder what their customers are actively buying — they don't carry dead inventory. Trade revenue outpacing GW's own stores is demand being pulled through the supply chain by consumers, not just pushed by GW's direct sales effort.
Store Productivity — Revenue per GW-Operated Store
Dividing GW own-retail H1 revenue by the contemporary GW store count gives
revenue per location — the standard retail productivity metric.
When this rises while store count also rises, it confirms that new stores
are not just displacing existing ones: the entire base is getting more productive.
This is GW's own audited financials, no estimation required.
H1 FY23: £92.6K per store → H1 FY26: £113.3K per store
(+22% in 3 comparable H1 periods).
Source: GW Half-Year Results (investor.games-workshop.com).
£113.3K
Revenue per Store (H1 FY26, H1)
+22%
Productivity Growth (H1 FY23 → H1 FY26)
570
GW Stores (H1 FY26 period)
Own Retail Revenue per GW Store (£K per H1)
Own Retail H1 revenue ÷ GW store count at period end.
Rising line = more revenue being generated per location — productivity gain, not just expansion.
Source: GW Half-Year Results.
| Period |
Stores |
Own Retail H1 |
Rev / Store |
| H1 FY23 | 526 | £48.7M | £92.6K |
| H1 FY24 | 526 | £56.5M | £107.4K |
| H1 FY25 | 548 | £62.0M | £113.1K |
| H1 FY26 | 570 | £64.6M | £113.3K |
Rev / Store = Own Retail H1 revenue ÷ contemporary store count.
Comparable H1 periods only (excludes H2 seasonality).
Source: GW Half-Year Reports.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Revenue per store going up while store count also increases means growth isn't just geographic expansion — existing locations are doing more business per square foot. This separates real same-store demand from the mechanical effect of opening new locations. When both store count and revenue per store are rising together, you have genuine demand outpacing supply capacity.
Physical Footprint Signals — Independent Data
The signals below are sourced independently of GW self-reporting: LinkedIn hiring activity
and narrative demand events from industry sources. These confirm that physical demand
momentum matches the digital signals.
Physical Expansion Pipeline — LinkedIn Store Manager Postings
Why this matters:
GW hires a Store Manager 3–6 months before opening.
Each active posting = a confirmed upcoming store. Each store generates
~£227K/year in own-retail revenue (based on latest productivity figures).
12 active postings = ~£2.7M in committed incremental annual revenue
GW has decided to bet on this year.
First Entry Seoul, South Korea (APAC) — no GW store previously existed in this market
All 11 expansion postings (click to expand)
| Location | Region |
|---|
| Tama Plaza / Kanagawa, Japan | APAC |
| Joondalup, Australia | APAC |
| Girona, Spain | EMEA |
| Chemnitz, Germany | EMEA |
| Wiesbaden, Germany | EMEA |
| Solihull, UK | UK |
| Southend, UK | UK |
| Arlington TX, USA | Americas |
| Harrisburg PA, USA | Americas |
| Kennewick WA, USA | Americas |
| Plainview NY, USA | Americas |
Revenue commitment = postings × £227K avg annual revenue per store (own-retail H1 FY26 annualized).
Source: LinkedIn job search (2026-03-13). MANUAL UPDATE REQUIRED monthly.
Notable Retail Demand Events
| Date | Event | Region | Source |
|---|
| 2024 | GW Memphis distribution warehouse added 3rd shift — fulfillment demand overflow | Americas | Community reporting |
| 2024 | First GW store opened in South Korea — previously zero physical presence | APAC | GW investor reports |
| 2025 | Japan: 13 stores active; 30+ planned through 2027 | APAC | GW investor reports |
| 2025 | Warhammer World USA announced — Washington DC metro area (2027 target) | Americas | GW investor reports |
Sources: industry news, GW half-year reports, community reporting.
⚠ = source unverified — requires independent confirmation.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
Independent third-party data — foot traffic analytics, LinkedIn hiring, and notable demand events — all confirm the physical retail story without relying on GW's own reporting. When external sources agree with a company's own financials, the signal is credible. Active LinkedIn store manager postings are a particularly reliable forward indicator: GW hires 3–6 months before opening, so each posting is a committed expansion bet already in motion.
Page 8 — GW Website Product Availability
GW Direct — Online Store Availability Tracker
Daily snapshot of all out-of-stock products on warhammer.com via their public Algolia search index.
We pull every OOS product sitewide plus a priority watchlist of beginner/starter sets.
GW's full catalog is ~3,700 SKUs — we do not track in-stock products individually.
Last updated: 2026-05-20 | 5 days of history.
15.0%
OOS Rate (~3,700 catalog)
14/55
New Releases Sold Out (25%)
All In Stock ✓
Core Starter Sets (6)
Daily OOS Snapshot History
| Date |
OOS Products |
Change |
New Releases OOS |
| 2026-05-02 | 511 | | 9/44 |
| 2026-05-03 | 511 | — | 9/44 |
| 2026-05-04 | 524 | ▲13 | 9/44 |
| 2026-05-19 | 541 | ▲17 | 14/55 |
| 2026-05-20 ← latest | 555 | ▲14 | 14/55 |
Tracking started 2026-05-02. Run daily via cron — trend becomes meaningful at ~30 days.
Rising count = more products selling through than being restocked.
OOS Count — Daily Trend
Total OOS products per day. 5 days tracked so far — trend becomes meaningful at ~30 days.
Core Starter Sets — Flagship New Player Products
The 6 primary products GW sells to first-time buyers.
These must stay in stock — OOS here directly caps new player acquisition. (EG snapshot: 2026-05-20)
| Product |
GW Price |
GW.com |
EG UK |
| Warhammer 40,000 Introductory Set | $69 | In Stock | 10+ In Stock |
| Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Starter Set | $114 | In Stock | 1 In Stock |
| Warhammer 40,000 Starter Set new edition pending | $114 | In Stock ⚡ | 10+ In Stock |
| Kill Team: Starter Set | $114 | In Stock | 8 In Stock |
| Warhammer 40,000 Combat Patrol Starter Set new edition pending | $220 | In Stock ⚡ | 10+ In Stock |
| Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Spearhead Starter Set | $220 | In Stock | 10+ In Stock |
⚡ In Stock with "new edition pending" = product active but GW is updating to a new edition version.
Still purchasable. Multiple 40k starters flagged simultaneously signals an edition cycle (historically
precedes a major new box launch by 3–9 months).
Beginner-Adjacent Products — The Broader Entry Ecosystem
Products a new player buys after the starter set: getting started guides,
Combat Patrols (the next step up), and paint sets.
3 of 4 currently OOS —
new player momentum is outrunning supply beyond the flagship starters.
| Product |
GW Price |
GW.com |
EG UK |
| Combat Patrols |
| Combat Patrol: Black Templars | $170 | Out of Stock | — |
| Combat Patrol: Death Guard | $170 | Out of Stock | — |
| Combat Patrol: Orks edition update | $170 | Out of Stock | — |
| Getting Started Guides |
| Getting Started with 40k | $0 | Not Listed | — |
| Introductory Sets |
| Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Introductory Set | $69 | In Stock | — |
| Paint Sets |
| 40k Paints + Tools Set | $0 | Not Listed | — |
Combat Patrols ($60–$130) are the standard "next box" recommendation after any starter set.
Getting Started guides are the cheapest printed on-ramp to the hobby (~$10–$15).
Paint sets are frequently bundled with starter advice. Consistent OOS across these
suggests new-player demand is not an isolated spike.
What's Inside the 555 OOS Products?
Breakdown by what kind of product and which game system — shows whether shortfalls are
broad-based or concentrated in one area.
By Product Type
| Miniature Kits | | 469 | 85% |
| Rulebooks / Cards | | 28 | 5% |
| Books | | 22 | 4% |
| Boxed Sets | | 3 | 1% |
| Gaming Accessories | | 3 | 1% |
| Hobby Accessories | | 4 | 1% |
| Licensed Products | | 8 | 1% |
| Paints | | 14 | 3% |
| Bundles | | 1 | 0% |
■ Blue = engagement signal (rulebooks & novels — not impulse buys)
By Game System
| 40k | | 156 | 28% |
| AoS | | 122 | 22% |
| Horus Heresy | | 48 | 9% |
| The Old World | | 26 | 5% |
| Specialty Games | | 79 | 14% |
| Middle-Earth | | 74 | 13% |
| Other | | 50 | 9% |
By Price Tier
| Under $30 (paints, tools, books) | | 59 | 11% |
| $30–$60 (single boxes, kits) | | 215 | 39% |
| $60–$150 (core boxes, battleboxes) | | 235 | 42% |
| $150–$400 (army sets, big boxes) | | 36 | 6% |
| $400+ (Forge World resin) | | 10 | 2% |
Most OOS is mid-range ($30–$150) — the core purchase range, not just cheap impulse items.
New Releases Already Sold Out
— 14 of 55 new releases OOS (25%)
Products launched recently and already OOS on GW.com.
GW's CEO has confirmed intentionally low inventory on new releases to be "fair to trade partners" —
so fast sell-through on high-price items is the key signal here, not the sheer count.
| Product |
Price |
System |
Type |
GW.com |
EG UK |
| Spearhead: City of Ash | $220 | AoS | Box Set | Out of Stock | OOS |
| Armageddon: The Return of Yarrick – War Without End (Collector's Edition) | $125 | 40k | Cards | Out of Stock | — |
| Wazdakka Gutsmek | $85 | 40k | Kit | Out of Stock | — |
| Venatari Sodality | $82 | Horus Heresy | Kit | Out of Stock | — |
| Custodian Dreadnought | $77 | Horus Heresy | Kit | Out of Stock | — |
| Zardu Layak: The Crimson Apostle (Special Edition) | $75 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
| Da Freebooterz Code (Special Edition) | $75 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
| HIVE (Hardback) | $65 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
| Inquisitor Kroyle | $60 | 40k | Kit | Out of Stock | — |
| Commissar Yarrick | $48 | 40k | Kit | Out of Stock | — |
| Death World (Anniversary Edition) | $35 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
| Commissar Yarrick Dice | $34 | 40k | Accessory | Out of Stock | — |
| Da Freebooterz Code (Hardback) | $30 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
| World Ablaze (Hardback) | $30 | Other | Book | Out of Stock | — |
Items OOS at both GW.com (US) and Element Games UK = confirmed broad demand, not regional allocation.
Items OOS on GW.com but in stock at EG = US-skewed demand or different regional release timing.
What This Shows & Why It Matters
GW uses pull-based manufacturing — low buffer stock, produced against forecast.
OOS on warhammer.com means real sell-through beat production planning.
Core starters staying in stock means the new-player pipeline is open.
Beginner-adjacent OOS (3 products) means players who just bought
a starter set can't easily get the next recommended product — a retention friction signal.
New release sell-out rate (25% in 5 days of tracking) reflects
GW's intentional scarcity strategy on launches — the higher-price items ($100+) selling out fastest
is the highest-conviction demand signal. GW has raised prices 3× since 2020 with no observed demand destruction.